Democrats on defense in 2012 governors’ races

BETH FOUHY

Asso­ci­ated Press

WASHINGTON — Democ­rats are play­ing defense in gov­er­nors’ races in 2012, pro­tect­ing eight seats — some in con­ser­v­a­tive states like North Car­olina and Mon­tana — while Repub­li­cans are safe­guard­ing just four. But one of those is in Wis­con­sin, where a recall effort against incum­bent Scott Walker has emerged as a national test of the con­fronta­tional mea­sures many GOP gov­er­nors have taken to bal­ance state budgets.

Both par­ties agree the land­scape is quite dif­fer­ent than in 2010, where 37 states elected gov­er­nors at the height of the eco­nomic down­turn and amid roil­ing voter anger over gov­ern­ment spend­ing and debt. Repub­li­cans net­ted 6 new seats that year, includ­ing impor­tant pres­i­den­tial bell­wether states like Penn­syl­va­nia, Michi­gan, Ohio and Wis­con­sin. There are cur­rently 29 Repub­li­can gov­er­nors, 20 Democ­rats and 1 independent.

This year, just 8 seats are up for grabs against a back­drop of a slowly improv­ing national econ­omy and a pres­i­den­tial con­test that will draw a broader range of vot­ers. Repub­li­cans are cast­ing the con­tests as a ref­er­en­dum on their own party’s lead­er­ship in tough times while Democ­rats are call­ing it a poten­tial course cor­rec­tion after two years of GOP overreach.

“The pub­lic in a num­ber of states in 2010 thought they were send­ing the mes­sage that with new lead­er­ship in the governor’s office they’d get an accel­er­ated recov­ery. Instead they got a hard right turn in ide­ol­ogy,” said Mary­land Gov. Mar­tin O’Malley, chair­man of the Demo­c­ra­tic Gov­er­nors Asso­ci­a­tion in an interview.

O’Malley pointed to Ohio, where vot­ers soundly rejected a bal­lot mea­sure backed by Repub­li­can gov­er­nor John Kasich to cur­tail pub­lic employee unions, and Florida, where Rick Scott’s aggres­sive bud­get cuts and remote style helped sink his approval rat­ings to record lows last year.

“The gov­er­nors we elected over the last cou­ple of cycles have come into office, made tough gutsy deci­sions that haven’t always been pop­u­lar. But they’ve been hon­est enough to tell their vot­ers we can’t afford to do things the same way,” said Vir­ginia Gov. Bob McDon­nell, chair­man of the Repub­li­can Gov­er­nors Association.

Nowhere are the par­ties’ con­trast­ing visions on more vivid dis­play than in Wis­con­sin, where Democ­rats sub­mit­ted more than a mil­lion peti­tions in Jan­u­ary to recall Walker, whose efforts to slash state worker ben­e­fits and end their col­lec­tive bar­gain­ing rights drew fierce protests from union mem­bers and other activists.

The spe­cial elec­tion is expected to take place in June, with a likely pri­mary in May to select a Demo­c­rat to chal­lenge Walker. For­mer Dane County Exec­u­tive Kath­leen Falk, a favorite of labor lead­ers, is expected to run, and Mil­wau­kee Mayor Tom Bar­rett is also explor­ing a race.

Both par­ties agree that the Wis­con­sin recall is likely to be the clos­est governor’s race of the year, and pos­si­bly the most expensive.

Democ­rats have mod­est hopes for a pickup in Indi­ana, where Repub­li­can Gov. Mitch Daniels is step­ping down after two terms. Rep. Mike Pence, a 6-term Repub­li­can from east­ern Indi­ana, is run­ning to replace Daniels, but John Gregg, a Demo­c­rat and for­mer state House speaker, is mount­ing a strong effort.

Indi­ana is heav­ily Repub­li­can and Obama’s pop­u­lar­ity in the state has dropped con­sid­er­ably since win­ning the state in 2008, the first Demo­c­ra­tic pres­i­den­tial hope­ful in 40 years to do so. But the DGA’s O’Malley said the strength­en­ing auto indus­try, both nation­ally and in Indi­ana, could boost Gregg’s chances.

Some states with elec­tions this year are expect­ing to retain cur­rent gov­er­nors, includ­ing Repub­li­cans Jack Dal­rym­ple of North Dakota and Gary Her­bert of Utah and Democ­rats Jack Markell of Delaware and Peter Shum­lin of Vermont.

But from there, Repub­li­cans expect to be on offense.

— In Wash­ing­ton state, where two-term Demo­c­rat Chris­tine Gre­goire is step­ping down, Rob McKenna, the pop­u­lar GOP attor­ney gen­eral, is run­ning to replace her. Wash­ing­ton has not elected a Repub­li­can gov­er­nor in 30 years, but party lead­ers say McKenna is a good fit for the state which Obama won hand­ily in 2008 and will likely do so again this time. Long­time Rep. Jay Inslee is expected to be the Demo­c­ra­tic contender.

— In Mon­tana, a con­ser­v­a­tive state where Demo­c­ra­tic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is step­ping down after two terms, Repub­li­cans are enthu­si­as­tic about their chances despite a June pri­mary that has drawn at least 7 hope­fuls so far. For­mer Rep. Rick Hill is con­sid­ered a favorite. Attor­ney Gen­eral Steve Bul­lock leads the Demo­c­ra­tic field.

— In Mis­souri, where incum­bent Demo­c­rat Jay Nixon is seek­ing re-election, Repub­li­cans hope the state’s slow eco­nomic recov­ery and an expected tight pres­i­den­tial and sen­ate con­test could help their chances of recap­tur­ing the seat. Dave Spence, a wealthy sub­ur­ban St. Louis busi­ness­man, is among the can­di­dates run­ning in the August GOP primary.

— In West Vir­ginia, a rematch is shap­ing up between incum­bent Demo­c­rat Earl Ray Tomblin and Repub­li­can Bill Mal­oney, who came within 3 points of beat­ing Tomblin in a 2011 spe­cial elec­tion despite almost no polit­i­cal expe­ri­ence and lit­tle name recog­ni­tion. The RGA’s McDon­nell pre­dicted Obama’s pres­ence at the top of the ticket this time was likely to drag down Tomblin. Obama lost the state to Repub­li­can John McCain in 2008 by 13 points.

— In North Car­olina, where incum­bent Demo­c­rat Bev Per­due is step­ping down after a sin­gle rocky term, Repub­li­cans are enthu­si­as­tic about Pat McCrory, a for­mer Char­lotte mayor who came within a few points of beat­ing Per­due in 2008. For­mer Rep Bob Etheridge and Lt. Gov. Wal­ter Dal­ton are among the Democ­rats expected to com­pete in the May primary.

— In New Hamp­shire, where Demo­c­rat John Lynch is retir­ing, Repub­li­can con­ser­v­a­tive activists Ovide Lam­on­tagne and Kevin Smith are vying for the Repub­li­can nom­i­na­tion while for­mer state Sen­ate Major­ity Leader Mag­gie Has­san is a favorite in the Demo­c­ra­tic pri­mary. New Hamp­shire went heav­ily Repub­li­can in 2010 after a grad­ual Demo­c­ra­tic shift in the prior decade. It’s con­sid­ered a swing state in this year’s pres­i­den­tial con­test and could even lean Repub­li­can if for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts Gov. Mitt Rom­ney is the GOP nom­i­nee. Obama won the state hand­ily in 2008.

Repub­li­cans also have a sig­nif­i­cant finan­cial advan­tage in the 2012 con­test. The RGA raised $44 mil­lion in 2011 and had nearly $27 mil­lion cash on hand in the group’s most recent fil­ing, while the Democ­rats raised $20 mil­lion and had about $12 mil­lion on hand.

Posted by AP News on Feb 26 2012. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS Feed. Comments can be made below.