AP-GfK Poll: Women, blacks, help Obama in new poll

CHARLES BABINGTON

Asso­ci­ated Press

WASHINGTON — Pres­i­dent Barack Obama’s pop­u­lar­ity among women, minori­ties and inde­pen­dents is giv­ing him an early edge over his likely GOP rival, Mitt Rom­ney, accord­ing to a new Asso­ci­ated Press-GfK poll.

The Demo­c­ra­tic pres­i­dent also earns strong marks on empa­thy, sin­cer­ity, like­abil­ity and social issues. But Amer­i­cans are split over which can­di­date can best han­dle the econ­omy, which might open path­ways for Rom­ney six months before the Novem­ber election.

Half of reg­is­tered vot­ers say they would back Obama in Novem­ber, while 42 per­cent favor Rom­ney, the AP-GfK poll found. About a quar­ter of vot­ers indi­cated they are per­suad­able, mean­ing they are unde­cided or could change their minds before Elec­tion Day.

Forty-one per­cent of vot­ers say they are cer­tain to vote for Obama, and 32 per­cent say they are locked in for Romney.

The nation­wide poll of 1,004 adults comes as Rom­ney is focus­ing heav­ily on fundrais­ing after gain­ing endorse­ments from of all but one of his GOP rivals, and con­ser­v­a­tive vot­ers are remind­ing politi­cians of their mus­cle. Repub­li­cans in Indi­ana on Tues­day ousted a six-term sen­a­tor accused of being too friendly to Obama, and North Car­olina vot­ers over­whelm­ingly approved a con­sti­tu­tional ban on same-sex marriage.

On Wednes­day, how­ever, Obama endorsed gay mar­riage, a sign that he is eager to fire up young and lib­eral vot­ers even if it costs him some sup­port in bat­tle­ground states such as North Car­olina, which he nar­rowly won in 2008.

In the AP-GfK poll, Amer­i­cans give Obama an edge over Rom­ney on numer­ous attrib­utes, but han­dling the econ­omy is a key excep­tion. The pub­lic is divided over whether Obama or Rom­ney would do a bet­ter job on the issue that strate­gists say will dom­i­nate the fall elec­tion. Forty-six per­cent pre­fer Obama on this topic, and 44 per­cent pre­fer Romney.

Rom­ney, who over­saw the restruc­tur­ing of sev­eral com­pa­nies while at Bain Cap­i­tal, says he under­stands the pri­vate sec­tor bet­ter than Obama does. Democ­rats dis­pute the claim.

If the eco­nomic recov­ery con­tin­ues to limp slowly, as it has in the past two months, Repub­li­cans say vot­ers will become more open to Romney’s campaign.

On other issues: Half of adults say Obama is the stronger leader, while 39 per­cent choose Rom­ney; Obama is more trusted to han­dle taxes and social issues, and to pro­tect the country.

Rom­ney, a for­mer Mass­a­chu­setts gov­er­nor who has changed his stance on some impor­tant issues over the past 18 years, may need to shore up his image on ques­tions of cred­i­bil­ity and sin­cer­ity. More than half of adults say Obama is the one who more often says what he believes, while 31 per­cent choose Rom­ney on that measure.

Mor­ris Grif­fin, 76, a Democratic-leaning voter from Lib­erty, Miss., is among those who ques­tion Romney’s consistency.

“He changes his mind every other day,” said Grif­fin, a Marine vet­eran. “This is the guy that didn’t want to save the auto­mo­tive indus­try some time back, and now he says he’s the one that had idea for sav­ing it.”

Still, Grif­fin said there is a 25 per­cent chance he will change his mind and not vote for Obama.

Obama’s biggest advan­tages are among women and minori­ties. His biggest prob­lem is with whites who lack col­lege degrees.

Female vot­ers favor the pres­i­dent by 54 per­cent to 39 per­cent. Men are evenly split, with 46 per­cent for each can­di­date. That’s largely in line with the 2008 “gen­der gap” that helped Obama win the White House.

Rom­ney draws the back­ing of half of all white vot­ers, while Obama gets 43 per­cent. White vot­ers with col­lege degrees split 50 per­cent for Obama to 46 per­cent for Rom­ney. Whites with­out col­lege degrees break 53 per­cent for Rom­ney to 38 per­cent for Obama.

The pres­i­dent con­tin­ues to draw strong sup­port from black vot­ers; 90 per­cent favor him; only 5 per­cent back Romney.

Obama holds an edge among inde­pen­dent vot­ers, an impor­tant but eas­ily mis­un­der­stood group. Inde­pen­dents nei­ther iden­tify with nor lean toward the Demo­c­ra­tic or Repub­li­can par­ties, but not all are swing vot­ers. Some are strongly lib­eral or con­ser­v­a­tive, so they can be just as com­mit­ted to a can­di­date as some partisans.

The AP-GfK poll found 42 per­cent of inde­pen­dents back­ing Obama, 30 per­cent back­ing Rom­ney and about a quar­ter unde­cided. Fifty-five per­cent said they remain persuadable.

Mar­i­anne Noble, a retired teacher from Eveleth, Minn., is an inde­pen­dent voter who sup­ports Obama. “I think he’s a good pres­i­dent,” she said. “He needs a lit­tle more time, four more years to ful­fill his potential.”

Noble, 83, said Rom­ney “skirts around cer­tain issues. He’s not very com­mit­ted to a cer­tain stance.”

But Rebecca Fab­rizio, a Repub­li­can from Hen­der­son, Ky., said she will gladly vote against Obama.

Rom­ney “is not my favorite, but out of my choices, that would be the one,” said Fab­rizio, 49, a retired nurse with three grown children.

She said Obama “wants to be pres­i­dent of the united world. He wants to be so loved… king of the world.” Rom­ney, she said, “is more will­ing to lis­ten to both sides of the story, get all the facts before he decides something.”

The Asso­ci­ated Press-GfK Poll was con­ducted May 3–7, by GfK Roper Pub­lic Affairs and Cor­po­rate Com­mu­ni­ca­tions. It involved land­line and cell phone inter­views with 1,004 adults nation­wide and has a mar­gin of sam­pling error of plus or minus 3.9 per­cent­age points. The poll included inter­views with 871 reg­is­tered vot­ers; results among that group have an error mar­gin of plus or minus 4.2 points.

Posted by AP News on May 9 2012. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS Feed. Comments can be made below.