The Delaware Gazette

Government statistics don’t pass the ‘sniff test’

Have you ever gone to the refrig­er­a­tor, opened it up, and been hit in the face with an odor that tells you some­thing in the fridge is not quite right? Well, that is pre­cisely what is hap­pen­ing right now with the government’s cur­rent crop of eco­nomic sta­tis­tics. Some­thing stinks. The prob­lem is that it is some­times extremely dif­fi­cult to tell what the smelly cul­prit is, and if a wrong guess is made, the health-related con­se­quences could be sig­nif­i­cant, much like try­ing to digest a rot­ten piece of food.

Industrial planning manufactures a false sense of accomplishment

Ear­lier this month Site Selec­tion mag­a­zine awarded its grand prize to Ohio for being the state with the most major busi­ness expan­sions in 2011 at 498 projects. The runner-up was Texas with 464 such projects. As might be expected, Ohio offi­cials, includ­ing Mark Kvamme as head of Gov­er­nor Kasich’s Job­sO­hio pro­gram, declared the vic­tory a vin­di­ca­tion of their efforts and sug­gested Ohio would remain a leader in attract­ing major expan­sions and new busi­nesses, thereby pro­duc­ing good job growth for Ohioans.

Economic developments lead to cautious optimism

Look­ing into the future is always fraught with dan­ger given the mul­ti­tude of known influ­ences that need to be con­sid­ered, not to men­tion those fac­tors that are unknown at the time a fore­cast is pro­duced. For exam­ple, how could any­one have guessed that a Japan­ese tsunami would roil mar­kets last year or that an uncom­monly mild win­ter would pre­vail in the U.S. this year while many parts of Europe dig out from under record snowfalls?

Part 3: Will government ever get its act together on housing?

The hous­ing indus­try is suf­fer­ing, in part because the struc­ture of our nation’s finan­cial mar­kets does not allow us to escape from past mis­takes. To a sig­nif­i­cant degree, this inabil­ity to break with the past can be directly blamed on a fed­eral gov­ern­ment that clings to its own inept­ness and forces the mar­ket­place to adjust for the mis­man­age­ment of the two GSEs, Fan­nie Mae and Fred­die Mac.

Part 2: Will government ever get its act together on housing?

Imag­ine you are aware of two com­pa­nies that, over the past few years, have man­aged to record losses of more than $150 bil­lion, with the poten­tial for red ink flow­ing as far as the eye can see. Would you expect to see these com­pa­nies con­tinue to oper­ate and shake down unsus­pect­ing investors for more funds to stay afloat?

Will government ever get its act together on housing?

Five years and count­ing — that’s how long the U.S. hous­ing cri­sis has been going on, and so far the coun­try has lit­tle to show for it. Mil­lions of peo­ple have lost (or are in the process of los­ing) their homes to fore­clo­sure and aver­age home prices have fallen by approx­i­mately one-third from their peak. The gov­ern­ment has ini­ti­ated a num­ber of pro­grams to help Amer­i­cans deal with the cri­sis — such as the Home Afford­able Mod­i­fi­ca­tion Pro­gram — but the results have been quite disappointing.

Presidential hopefuls: Did they really say that?

While I don’t want to palm myself off as a polit­i­cal ana­lyst, it looks as though the pres­i­den­tial show­down may see a face-off between Barack Obama and Mitt Rom­ney. Per­haps given this like­li­hood, vir­tu­ally every state­ment made by each man is being dis­sected in great detail to bet­ter under­stand what each might stand for over the next four years. In the past week or so, both men have said some things that are get­ting tremen­dous expo­sure; an expo­sure that, per­haps, is incor­rectly dis­sect­ing what the can­di­dates actu­ally said. As such, it may be appro­pri­ate to exam­ine their actual state­ments and real­ize they are per­haps being misinterpreted.

Local labor market problems growing more acute

Late last week the Ohio Depart­ment of Job and Fam­ily Ser­vices released Decem­ber 2011 employment/unemployment fig­ures for the greater Colum­bus area, with the unem­ploy­ment rate — not adjusted for sea­sonal vari­a­tions — drop­ping to 6.4 per­cent. This rate was down from November’s 6.6 per­cent, and was far below the unem­ploy­ment rate of 7.7 per­cent in Decem­ber 2010. And the reac­tion at the Depart­ment of Job and Fam­ily Ser­vices? Accord­ing to their spokesman, Ben­jamin John­son, “It shows def­i­nite improve­ment … (i)t shows a strength­en­ing econ­omy and an improv­ing job market.”

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