Sunny skies, high temperatures and Indian summer… nothing screams Christmas more loudly than these types of weather events, right? Well, perhaps not, but that doesn’t keep the nation’s retailers from doing their very best to try to accelerate your tendency to enjoy the spirit of giving. And what they really want you to do is give to them, retailers, as merry a Christmas as possible in a very slowly growing economy.
Oct 30 2012 | Posted in
Jim Newton |
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As the presidential election moves closer and closer, voters have questions that need to be answered in a clear, concise and unambiguous way. For example, how many jobs are being created? Or, getting down to the election itself, which candidate is likely to win, President Obama or Governor Romney?
Good news! According to the Federal Reserve’s September “central tendency” forecast, the U.S. economy’s outlook for 2013 has improved. Next year should see real GDP expand within the range of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent after a disappointing 2012, which the Fed crystal-ballers expect to come in at about 1.7 percent to 2.0 percent. And with that 2013 economic growth rate the Fed believes the nation’s unemployment rate will drop to somewhere within the range of 7.6 percent to 7.9 percent. All-in-all, not a bad outlook.
Oct 17 2012 | Posted in
Jim Newton |
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During last week’s presidential debate, President Obama — while responding to a question regarding entitlements — indicated that Social Security (SS) is fundamentally sound and only needs a few tweaks. And what was the response of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney? A smile in apparent agreement.
Every year economists around the nation — actually, around the world — take a stab at attempting to figure out where the U.S. economy is likely to move, given that our country accounts for about one-quarter of worldwide output. Being the biggest economy in the world (yes, still far larger than runner-up China), the U.S. is often the largest trading partner of many nations, whereas our imports/exports are generally more diversified among nations.
Oct 2 2012 | Posted in
Jim Newton |
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Bipolar economic disorder, whether related to an overall economic area (such as the euro-zone) or individuals within a specific economy (as described last week for the U.S.) can be debilitating and indiscriminate. For a collection of nations like the euro-zone — or for one state versus another in the U.S. — attempts to bail out one nation (Greece) must come from a willingness of other nations (such as Germany) to sacrifice their economic strength, vitality and standards of living in the hope of forestalling financial disaster from years of fiscal incompetence. In this process, there are not likely to be any true winners. Even the nations receiving a bailout must endure years of deprivation to hopefully correct a tragically unbalanced economy.
Last week I wrote of the possibility of an area suffering from “bipolar economic disorder (BED),” where some countries prosper (a “manic” behavior representing exuberant economic growth) while others deal with a far bleaker economic reality (a “depressive” state of economic affairs). The euro-zone is an unfortunate example of this phenomenon, with some countries such as Greece exhibiting the downside of BED, while others, including Germany, see positive GDP growth and offer citizens an improving standard of living.
Sep 18 2012 | Posted in
Jim Newton |
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Over the past few years the euro-zone — a 17 nation monetary union — has been subject to widely divergent economic realities from one country to another. In a very general way, many of the countries in the southern portion of the euro-zone have been described as economically at-risk. The nations most at-risk have been lumped into the unflattering PIIGS-category, composed of the countries of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.
